Will “Big Bill” Survive Senate SHREDDER?

Senate Republicans are preparing to revise President Trump’s massive tax-and-spending “Big, Beautiful Bill,” triggering backlash from House conservatives who warn that key campaign pledges may be gutted in the process.

At a Glance

  • House GOP leaders urged the Senate to preserve Trump’s bill as passed, with minimal changes
  • Senators including Rand Paul and Mike Lee are pushing back on the projected $2.4 trillion deficit impact
  • Provisions under scrutiny include SALT cap relief, tip/overtime tax exemptions, and Medicaid cuts
  • The Congressional Budget Office projects the bill would add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over 10 years
  • Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned that major rewrites could force a conference with the House

Senate Faces MAGA vs. Math Dilemma

After barely clearing the House, the bill now enters the Senate where fiscal conservatives are lining up to demand changes. House GOP Conference Chair Lisa McClain warned senators to “touch very lightly” to avoid triggering a formal negotiation process that could delay or derail passage entirely.

Key Trump Promises at Risk

Senate Republicans are particularly focused on three controversial provisions:

  • The SALT deduction cap raised to $40,000 in the House version may be rolled back by fiscal hawks, especially from red states
  • The proposed tax exemption for tips and overtime pay—a centerpiece of Trump’s campaign—faces scrutiny as a revenue risk
  • Medicaid and SNAP cuts are being reconsidered by rural-state Republicans concerned about constituent impact

Budget Hawks Sound the Alarm

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill would add $2.4 trillion to the national deficit over a decade, even with offsetting cuts. That has prompted harsh criticism from Sens. Rand Paul, Mike Lee, Ron Johnson, and Rick Scott.

In a recent interview, Sen. Johnson sided with Elon Musk, who called the plan “outrageous,” and dared Trump to defend the bill’s rising cost in public.

Clock Ticking Toward July 4 Deadline

Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged that changes are likely but warned that “major rewrites” would require a formal conference with the House. The White House has privately urged lawmakers to move quickly and finalize the package before the July 4 recess.

As the Senate weighs fiscal responsibility against campaign symbolism, the fate of Trump’s signature tax package—and his broader 2024 agenda—hangs in the balance.

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