Democratic strategist James Carville is urging his party to remain cautious despite positive polling for Vice President Kamala Harris, reminding Democrats that President Donald Trump has consistently outperformed polling averages in previous elections. During an appearance on CNN’s “The Lead with Jake Tapper,” Carville emphasized that while Harris may hold a narrow lead nationally, history suggests that Trump performs better than expected in key battleground states.
Carville pointed to Trump’s track record in 2016 and 2020 as proof that poll numbers can be deceiving. “President Trump runs, he overperforms his polling averages,” Carville said, noting that Trump’s unexpected strength in swing states led to his 2016 victory and nearly won him re-election in 2020. He warned that Harris’s current polling lead isn’t as secure as it seems, especially when accounting for Trump’s ability to exceed expectations.
Carville also highlighted the Electoral College challenge Harris faces. To win, Harris would likely need to win the popular vote by at least three points, given how the distribution of voters favors Trump in key states. “People need to have some reality infused in their optimism,” Carville said, urging Democrats to stay focused and avoid complacency.
His comments echo similar concerns from other Democratic analysts, like CNN’s Van Jones, who noted the race is still tight despite Harris’s recent media boost. Carville’s message is clear: don’t underestimate Trump’s ability to surprise, especially in states where polling can be less reliable.
